On the 15th of January 2025, agreement on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was announced. On the 17th of January, it was confirmed that both parties
On the 15th of January 2025, agreement on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was announced. On the 17th of January, it was confirmed that both parties had signed the agreement in Doha, Qatar. The ceasefire, mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States came into effect yesterday (19th January) and with the initial release of some hostages by both sides.
The Houthis have reportedly now said that they will stop targeting international merchant ships while the ceasefire holds, but that Israeli-owned and -flagged tonnage may still be targets for attack as long as Israeli Armed Forces remain in Gaza.
Risk intelligence service Ambrey assesses that phase 2 of the ceasefire – when Israeli forces are due to fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip and hostilities permanent end, set to begin after terms of the 42-day phase one are successfully observed – will likely offer the grounds for the Houthi to officially end their actions against Israeli tonnage. It added that the group would doubtless reserve a right to resume attacks should it deem this necessary, however.
Provided the ceasefire holds and its terms are observed by all parties, a return of shipping to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the use of the Suez Canal route rather than the Cape of Good Hope diversion will now gradually occur, predicts Ambrey.
However, a resurgence of the Yemeni Civil War remains possible, it cautions, which could in turn lead to a change in the Houthis’ intent, targeting anti-Yemen coalition shipping instead of Israel-affiliated vessels.
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