Russia Clings On in a Divided Syria

The Russian evacuation of its heavy equipment from Syria continues, whilst the Russian naval presence lingers in the Mediterranean, for the time being making do without Tartus as a base facility.

The Russian military cargo ship Sparta IV was alongside in Tartus for several days up to February 25, loading wheeled armored vehicles. The Krivak-class Admiral Grigorovich (F745) appears to be lying just offshore, in Syrian territorial waters, providing protective cover and poised to escort the Sparta IV on its homeward journey. At the other end of the Mediterranean, the Gorshkov-class Admiral Golovko (F461) looks as if it may have been escorting the Baltic Leader, another Russian cargo ship last seen in Tartus in early February, as it made its way back eastwards across the Mediterranean. In between times, the Ropucha-class landing ship Alexandre Shabalin (L110) has also been loading in Tartus, a more obviously naval vessel. On March 2, Admiral Grigorovich, Alexandre Shabalin, Sparta IV and two other Russian cargo ships, the Syanie Severa and Asacalon, were noted by naval open source specialist MT Anderson leaving Tartus as a convoy.

These ship movements indicate that the Russians have business-like dealings with the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government in Syria, who have also provided effective protection to allow the evacuation to continue without interdiction or hindrance. But the fact that heavy equipment is being withdrawn clearly implies that if the Russians manage to retain a foothold in Syria, it will be a smaller presence and will have a restricted role when compared with the operational freedom that the Russians had enjoyed since Soviet days.

Russian negotiations with the HTS government continue over a future presence. But as the talks continue, the political environment is changing. Given the recent global political upheavals, it should no longer be assumed that the United States