Editorial: Risks of Houthi Attacks on Shipping Increase

The risk of a resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has risen in recent days, linked to growing potential for the resumption of hostilities in Gaza.

On January 19, the Houthi leadership in Yemen announced that they would no longer attack US and UK shipping so long as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held. Since the Houthi announced that they would suspend their campaign, insurance premiums for Red Sea transits have fallen and there have been no announced attacks. The industry has regarded the ceasefire as fragile, and major carriers such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM have been reluctant to resume services through the Red Sea. Some shipping has returned, however, including LNG tanker traffic, which normally carries the highest insurance premiums.

Meanwhile, the Houthis have been replenishing missile and drone stocks and seeking alternative sources of supply. US Coast Guard Sentinel Class cutter USCGC Clarence Sutphin Jr (WPC 1147) intercepted a dhow in the Arabian Sea on January 28, with Iranian missile and drones components destined for the Houthis on board. And on March 5, the U.S. Treasury announced a series of sanctions connected with Houthi attempts to procure weapons systems directly from Russia, orchestrated by the Houthi external affairs office in Oman led by Mohammad Abdulsalam, who was sanctioned under E.O. 13224 along with his deputy Eshaq Abdulmalek Abdullah Almarwan.

The principal cause of the heightened risk is the fragile situation in Gaza, where the first phase of the ceasefire has ended without agreement on its continuation or a second phase. But the primary catalyst is likely to be the immediate rejection of the Arab League’s proposal for the reconstruction of Gaza by both Israel and the United States.

The US rejection has been accompanied by powerful American statements of intent, which on March