US Oil Output Projection Raised for 2025, says EIA

U.S. oil production is expected to reach new heights in 2025, surpassing earlier projections, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

• The EIA now forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd.

Despite this upward revision in production, the agency has kept its forecast for U.S. petroleum and liquid fuel consumption steady at 20.5 million bpd for 2025. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to maximizing U.S. oil output, even as industry leaders emphasize the importance of capital discipline amid volatile market conditions.

Brent crude prices are projected to average $74 per barrel in 2025, before declining to around $66 in 2026. This trend reflects anticipated increases in production alongside modest global demand growth. OPEC+ production cuts are expected to keep global oil inventories tight, supporting current price levels through the first quarter of 2025.

Global liquid fuels production is forecasted to rise by 1.7 million bpd in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing around 100,000 bpd. The group plans to boost output by an additional 600,000 bpd in 2026 as they gradually ease voluntary production cuts. However, production