Unregistered and cleanskin tankers keep Russian oil flowing as sanctions escalate, researchers say
Unflagged tankers and vessels new to Russian trades are keeping oil exports ticking over for the Putin administration despite ever more stringent Western sanctions.
Researchers at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) found that in January, Russian oil export revenue increased by $1bn to $15.8bn due to higher crude and product prices.
Preliminary data for 2024 also showed that total revenue rose by $4bn from 2023 to hit $189.1bn.
“Despite increasing US sanctions, Russia continues to rely on its ageing shadow fleet, using both sanctioned and newly added vessels to sustain oil exports,” KSE said.
Russia uses flags of convenience to evade sanctions, obscure vessel ownership and sustain oil exports, its latest report found.
Unregistered tankers also began operating in January, KSE added.
The US, UK, and European Union have now sanctioned 311 oil vessels for Russian trading infringements. But 63 of these continue to operate in the trade, KSE believes.
Among the 159 tankers blacklisted by the US on 10 January for carrying Russian oil in 2024, 31 have loaded cargo since the designation date and some have discharged it, the institute calculated.
Meanwhile, 29 new tankers have started transporting Russian oil since that date, despite not being involved in 2024.
Russian seaborne oil exports rose by 4.3% month-on-month in January, with crude oil increasing by 3.4% and product exports by 5.5%.
But only 14% of crude and 58% of oil products were transported by tankers with insurance through International Group P&I Clubs, the researchers said.
KSE assesses that most oil continues to move on shadow fleet vessels.
In January, 192 of these tankers carried Russian oil, accounting for 86% of shipments.
More than nine in 10 of these were over 15 years of age.
“While export levels remain high, the growing use of ageing vessels further increases environmental risks. The poor condition of these tankers raises the risk of oil spills, threatening marine ecosystems and coastal states,” KSE said.
The institute projects that Russian oil revenue will reach $149bn this year, falling to $131bn in 2026.
But if sanctions enforcement is weak, Russian oil revenues could increase, hitting $170bn in 2025 and $163bn next year, it added.
On Monday, it was reported that the US is rejecting a Canadian proposal to set up a task force to monitor sanctions breaches by the shadow fleet of tankers trading in Russian oil.
The move comes ahead of a G7 meeting of foreign ministers in Quebec this week. Bloomberg cited a draft G7 statement by the US containing the veto.
The document also showed that the Trump administration is seeking to remove the word “sanctions” and a section referring to Russia’s “ability to maintain its war”. It wants to replace this with “earn revenue”.
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