Global bunker indices show volatile trend

At the end of the 11th week of the year, the global bunker indices of the Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) showed no stable trend, fluctuating in different directions.

The 380 HSFO index increased by US$6.23 to US$501.76, once again surpassing the US$500 mark. Meanwhile, the VLSFO index continued its downward movement, decreasing by US$1.80, remaining below the US$600 threshold. The MGO index also declined further, dropping US$6.20 to US$764.82/MT.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its downward trajectory, falling by US$8.03 to US$78.29. This drop pushed the spread below the US$80 mark, staying well under the US$100 breakeven point. The weekly average of the index also declined by US$4.72.

In Rotterdam, the SS Spread decreased further by US$5, dropping from US$63 to US$58, while the port’s weekly average fell by US$9.83. Similarly, in Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO continued to shrink, decreasing by US$17 to US$28. Notably, within the week, the spread in Singapore narrowed even more to US$23, while the port’s weekly average declined by US$12.83.

The ongoing decline in the SS Spread significantly reduces the profitability and cost-effectiveness of the 380 HSFO + Scrubber combination, making conventional VLSFO a more appealing option. This trend is particularly relevant in Southern Europe, where the 0.1% sulfur cap will come into effect on May 1 as part of the Mediterranean SECA declaration.

Above-average storage withdrawals have reduced gas supplies in both the United States and Europe, sparking concerns about potential shortages. With inventories below typical levels, replenishment may take longer, particularly if cold weather persists or production remains limited. In the short term, strong demand, tight supply, and geopolitical risks are expected to keep natural gas prices high. Weather forecasts will influence short-term price fluctuations, while global LNG logistics, trading trends, and geopolitical developments will shape long-term market dynamics.

As of March 11, European regional storage facilities were 35.88% full, reflecting a decrease
of 1.75% from the previous week and a significant drop of 35.45% since the beginning of the

year. The withdrawal of gas from storage continues. At the end of the 11th week, the
European gas benchmark TTF saw a slight decline of €0.754/MWh, falling from €43.464/MWh last week to €42.71/MWh. However, signs of a renewed upward trend
have begun to emerge.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) dropped by US$66 over the past week, reaching US$833/MT on March 10. Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed, with MGO LS priced at US$732/MT, resulting in a US$71 difference in favor of MGO LS—down from US$124 the previous week. For more details, visit the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.

At the end of the 11th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—continued to fluctuate across the four key global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.

• 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overvalued zone, with their weekly average MDI rising by 4 and 11 points, respectively. In contrast, Fujairah and Houston were undervalued, though their undervaluation levels decreased by 11 and 1 point, respectively. Notably, Rotterdam’s MDI remained at the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam was the only overvalued port in this category, with its average MDI dropping by 4 points. Meanwhile, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with their weekly average MDI narrowing by 1, 1, and 5 points, respectively.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam returned to the undervaluation zone, making all four ports undervalued in this segment. The weekly average MDI increased by 8 points in Rotterdam but declined by 6 points in Singapore, 10 points in Fujairah, and 6 points in Houston. The Rotterdam index remains near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.

“We believe the downtrend in the global bunker market remains intact, and a moderate
decline in bunker fuel prices is expected to continue next week,” stated Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX.

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