Multinational investment bank UBS sees the combination of fiscal resilience and
Multinational investment bank UBS sees the combination of fiscal resilience and a shortage of titles as an appealing entry point for investors into the Greek bond market. Its analysis estimates that a 3.5% yield is an optimal investment opportunity.
UBS’s positive outlook for the Greek economy is founded primarily on four main components:
UBS forecasts a 2.8% GDP growth rate for Greece in 2025, the highest among major Eurozone economies and 70 basis points above the consensus estimate. This growth is expected to be fueled by a significant increase in disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) grants and loans to final recipients.
UBS forecasts Greece will comfortably reach its 2.5% primary fiscal surplus of GDP target for 2025, citing several factors:
Growth in net primary national expenditures is capped at 3.7%, below nominal GDP growth.
The government is expected to generate an additional €500 million in revenues from combating tax evasion, on top of €1.8 billion in 2024, thanks to minor reforms.
Greece’s ongoing efforts to refinance the costliest segments of its debt, including the early repayment of €17.8 billion in European GLF loans in 2024, are helping to keep overall debt servicing costs favorable. These actions also support
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