Retailers Accelerate Imports, Leading to Revised Q2 Projections

Retailers are ramping up their imports at U.S. ports amid ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and the possibility of new fees on ships manufactured in China, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). While the institution anticipates high import volumes to persist through spring, its Global Port Tracker has adjusted its second-quarter import forecast downward compared to last month’s predictions.

The NRF emphasizes concerns from its members about elevated import levels observed in early 2025, notably with strong monthly figures reported at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Though, following declines in consumer sales for January and February, the NRF now warns that import volumes may experience year-over-year reductions this summer.

The National Retail federation’s Port Tracker monitors container traffic at major U.S. ports. The group has increased its first-quarter forecast by 3.5 percent but reduced expectations for the second quarter by 2.5 percent. It now predicts potential year-over-year drops in imports starting in June and July—the first decline as September 2023.

“Retailers are striving to bring as much inventory into the country as possible before tariffs rise,” stated Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF. “The fluctuating tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico won’t substantially affect port traffic as most of those products are transported by truck or rail. However, new tariffs on Chinese goods—rising from 10 to 20 percent—are concerning along with uncertainties surrounding ‘reciprocal’ tariffs expected in April.”

The trade association points out that while retailers are diversifying their supply chains, such changes take time to implement effectively.In the interim, they stress that tariffs act as taxes on imports ultimately borne by consumers rather than foreign nations; thus American families will face higher costs provided that thes measures remain active. Economists share similar worries even as Donald Trump recently downplayed