Bunker indices show mixed trends and fluctuations

At the close of the 12th week of the year, the Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) indices displayed mixed movements, fluctuating in different directions.

The 380 HSFO index experienced a slight increase of US$0.62 to US$500.01/MT, maintaining its level above the US$500 threshold. The VLSFO index also saw a gain of US$2.11 to US$580.57/MT, though it remained below the US$600 mark. In contrast, the MGO index recorded a decline of US$2.39 to US$757.32/MT.

“At the time of writing, the market was experiencing a slight downward trend,” stated a MABUX representative.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), representing the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, experienced a moderate upward adjustment, increasing by US$1.49 to US$80.56. This brought it back to the US$80.00 level, though it remains below the $100 breakeven point. However, the weekly average of the index declined by US$1.31.

In Rotterdam, the SS Spread saw a further decline of US$9, dropping from US$63 to US$54, with the port’s weekly average decreasing by US$5.50. In contrast, Singapore witnessed a US$10 expansion in the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread, rising from US$35 to US$45, with the weekly average increasing by US$7.66.

Overall, there has been no major shift in SS Spread trends, with conventional VLSFO continuing to be the more cost-effective option compared to the 380 HSFO + Scrubber combination.

According to the statement, warm temperatures in Europe gave way to freezing weather early last week. The current winter heating season, coupled with cold temperatures and periods of weak wind power generation, has led to significant gas withdrawals from storage. This, along with the end of Russian pipeline gas supplies through Ukraine, has driven up prices.

In February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of tighter LNG market conditions in 2025. Low European Union (EU) gas inventory levels by the end of this winter will require higher gas imports than in the past two years, increasing European demand in global LNG markets and tightening market fundamentals. One advantage for Europe is that European prices have outperformed Asian markets this year, where ample supplies and sluggish demand have prevented spot LNG price spikes.

However, the need to replenish European gas stocks from much lower levels than in previous years has pushed summer 2025 TTF futures prices above winter 2026 prices, significantly slowing the pace of gas storage refilling.

As of 18 March, European regional storage facilities were filled to 34.53%, down 1.35% from the previous week and 36.80% lower than at the start of the year (71.33%). Despite a general increase in temperatures, gas withdrawals from storage continue. At the end of the 12th week, the European gas benchmark TTF continued to decline, dropping by 1.955
euros/MWh to 40.755 euros/MWh, compared to 42.710 euros/MWh the previous week.

By the end of the week, the price of LNG as bunker fuel at the Port of Sines (Portugal) increased by US$34, reaching US$837/MT on 17 March. Meanwhile, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel widened to US$121 in favor of MGO LS, up from US$71 the previous week. On the same day, MGO LS was listed at US$716/MT at the Port of Sines.

During the 12th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares market bunker prices (MBP) with the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP), showed mixed trends across the four major global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.

In the 380 HSFO segment, Rotterdam and Singapore remained overvalued, with their average weekly MDI decreasing by 2 and 4 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Fujairah and Houston continued to be undervalued, with their levels of undervaluation increasing by 5 and 4 points, respectively. Notably, Rotterdam’s MDI reached a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

In the VLSFO segment, Rotterdam was the only overvalued port, with its average MDI declining by 7 points. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with weekly average MDI values decreasing by 3 points in Singapore and 2 points in Houston, while Fujairah saw a 2-point increase. Rotterdam’s MDI also neared the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.

In the MGO LS segment, Rotterdam re-entered the overvalued zone, becoming the only overpriced port in this category, with its weekly average overvaluation increasing by 4 points. In contrast, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with their average MDI falling by 12, 14, and 10 points, respectively. Rotterdam remained close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.

“We believe the global bunker market has reached a state of relative balance and do not
anticipate significant changes in bunker fuel prices next week,” commented Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX.

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